Economic problems multiply under Trump

Introduction

In an earlier post titled “The Specter of Fascism,” I considered the fascist aspects of Trump’s rhetoric and plans (https://vitalissuesbobsheak.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4124&action=edit). This was sent out on May 25, 2024. There I quoted  Federico Finchelstein, who has written extensively about fascism.

In his most recent book, The Wannabe Fascists: A Guide to Understanding the Greatest Threat to Democracy (publ. 2024 by the University of California Press), he identifies “the four pillars of fascism,” including: (1) “violence and the militarization of politics; (2) “lies, myths, and propaganda”; (3) “the politics of xenophobia” and racism; and (4) dictatorship (pp. 16-17). He argues that Trump is not quite a full-blown fascist, but rather a “wannabe fascist because he has not yet become a “dictator,” or a leader with unlimited power.

“Well before January 6, 2021,” Finchelstein writes, “Trump had already established (to some alarming extent) three of the four pillars of fascism: violence and the militarization of policies, racism, and lies. The element that Trumpism was missing was dictatorship. And then the attempted coup d’etat happened….Had this attempt succeeded, Trump would have most likely become a dictator. In that scenario, it would have been more appropriate to think of him as a fascist. Because he wavered and failed, I [Finchelstein] calls him a wannabe fascist” (p. 18). This could all change if Trump wins the presidential election in November, 2024 (as he did). The plans of Trump and the Republican Party are clearly anti-democratic and revolve around the idea of Trump as the permanent leader, a “one-person [with] absolute and permanent rule” (p. 152).

As we all know, Trump narrowly won the presidential election in 2024 under extraordinary circumstances. The authors of the book 2024, Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager, and Isaac Arnsdorf, document how Biden’s long delay in withdrawing from the presidential campaign, left Kamala Harris with too little time to mount an effective campaign. She almost managed to win the election anyway and would have won if not for so many gerrymandered elections and financial support from the rich and powerful, especially but from Elon Musk and other billionaires.

Now, well into his seventh month of his second term in the White House, Trump has striven to extend his power over more of the country’s institutions, advancing rightwing, often anti-democratic policies. His efforts are supported by his MAGA base, by the Republican Party, by many rich people and big corporations, by the Supreme Court, and by right-wing media.

In recent weeks, Trump’s popularity has been weakened by the economic dislocations and hardships on most citizens related to his firing of many thousands of federal workers and the related loss of services and jobs. These were exacerbated by Trump’s tariff policies, the arbitrary expulsion of law-abiding, employed immigrant residents, and the highly regressive tax policies in his Big Beautiful Bill. His low poll numbers now reflect how the majority of Americans are unhappy with what Trump is doing and attempting to do.

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Trump’s Tariff Debacle

John Feffer considers the effects of Trump’s tariff policies, August 6, 2025 (https://fpif.org/trumps-tariff-tsunami). He is the director of Foreign Policy In Focus. His latest book is Right Across the World: The Global Networking of the Far-Right and the Left Response. Here’s some of what Feffer writes about in the article.

It’s not difficult to imagine that seasoned trade negotiators are squaring off against Trump’s team, which includes the unseasoned and frankly incoherent Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, to make deals that contain holes big enough to drive a truck through (all the way to the United States). The early evidence is that Trump’s tariffs are backfiring in many ways, including the one statistic that obsesses the president. America’s trade deficit with the world is only increasing.”

China.

“Consider the administration’s approach to China, the third or fourth largest U.S. trade partner depending on the metric. In early April, Trump decided to apply tariffs of about 145 percent on Chinese products. The Dow tanked, and U.S. businesses freaked out at the prospect of huge price increases on components and finished products coming from China.

“Negotiations with the Chinese followed, during which Trump backpedaled like a prizefighter sustaining a series of body blows. The Chinese economy is doing pretty well, and they have natural resources like rare earth elements that the United States desperately needs. So, when China retaliated with high tariffs of their own and threatened restrictions on rare earth elements, Trump was forced to deal. He reduced U.S. tariffs to 30 percent (while China reduced its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10 percent).

“But here’s the kicker. Trump also approved the sale of sophisticated computer chips—Nvidia’s H20 chips, which are designed for artificial intelligence applications—that previous U.S. administrations had blocked. This kind of compromise has signaled to various economic actors that perhaps Trump is not so serious about his tariffs—or, at least, he can be negotiated with.”

The European Union

“Instead of fighting like the Chinese, the European Union accepted a 15 percent tariff rate. That’s ‘definitively better than the 30 percent threatened by Trump,’ writes Cecilia Malmström of the Peterson Institute. ‘But it is still a lot more than the status of trade before Trump’s second term, when the average tariff rate between the European Union and the United States was only a few percentages. Today we face the highest transatlantic tariffs in 70 years.’”

Canada and Mexico

Feffer: “Canada saw its tariffs rise from 25 percent to 35 percent, though this applies to a minority of goods crossing the border that don’t comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Trump was pissed off at the earlier reciprocal tariffs against U.S. products, which Canada hasn’t yet removed. A ‘Buy Canada’ campaign and a diversification of trade partners point to a longer-term reduction in Canadian dependency on U.S. markets and suppliers.

Hope that Trump will retract the tariffs

Feffer: “U.S. businesses are also hoping that Trump will eventually retract his tariffs. Although markets fluctuate with the same kind of volatility that characterizes Trump’s temperament, manufacturers don’t appreciate such unpredictability.

“They’ve responded by employing interim hedging measures that have so far not passed on the costs to consumers. One popular [but limited and short-term] tactic has been to stockpile.”

“Consumers, meanwhile, have adopted the tactic of hoarding: consumer electronics, auto parts, building materials, clothing. Even members of the Trump administration have been stocking up on bulk toilet paper in anticipation of price hikes. But pantries can hold just so many bags of Brazilian coffee beans. And worse is to come.”

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Mass Firing of federal workers

Lauren Kaori Gurley writes on the high unemployment in July

(https://washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/07/unemployment-claims-rise). She

is the labor reporter for The Washington Post.

Gurly cites a Labor Department report that “claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 1.97 million in late July.” That is the highest level since November 2021. “A separate jobs report released last week showed that employers are hiring at close to the slowest pace in more than a decade, excluding the pandemic.”

“Federal layoffs have also accelerated and will continue to rise this year, which could spill over to other industries. A Supreme Court decision in July allowed the Trump administration to proceed with job cuts.”

Gurley refers to a government jobs report released Friday [Aug. 8] that “showed a much slower labor market than previously recorded, with lower-than-expected job gains in July and far fewer job gains in May and June, 258,000 less than previously reported for those months.” Trump responded angrily to the report by taking “the unprecedented step of firing the top official at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, hours after the data was released. Trump claimed, without evidence, that jobs data had been manipulated for political purposes.”

Rather, Trump’s own tariff policy has negatively affected many retail, construction and manufacturing employers “who have paused plans for hiring and expansion amid the expectation of the higher import costs.” That same is true for hiring in white-collar sectors, which has been stagnant for many months. Gurly’s sources say that if economic conditions continue to deteriorate, employers will increase layoffs even more than they have.

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The Bleak Future of Trumponomics

Ryan Cooper writes on the likelihood of a bleak future with Trumponomics for the American Prospect magazine (https://prospect.org/economy/2025-08-06-bleak-future-of-trumponomics). Cooper is a senior editor at the Prospect, and author of ‘How Are You Going to Pay for That?: Smart Answers to the Dumbest Question in Politics.’ His central point is that “Donald Trump is destroying the world’s faith in America and the dollar.” That will cost the country dearly in lost foreign investors.

Cooper continues. “On July 4, Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law. It’s a hyped-up edition of the same old Republican dogma. It contains the largest cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits in history, which do not even come close to compensating for giant tax cuts, mostly for the rich. It would increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion by 2034; if we assume that all the tax cuts will be made permanent (a certainty if Republicans have anything to say about it), the total is over $5.5 trillion.”

The global importance of the dollar is now threatened

“Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, turbulent economic times have reliably led to a flight to the safety of dollars and U.S. government debt. That creates a consistent demand for dollar-based assets, so countries and businesses can settle international transactions, and build up exchange reserves to defend against potential currency crises.

“That assumption is now being called into question. Trump’s wildly erratic behavior, abolishing whole federal agencies by fiat and yanking up and down tariffs at random via social media post, has created vast turbulence in the international economy. But instead of a flight to dollar safety, since Trump has taken office, interest rates on 10- and 30-year Treasury bonds are up modestly, while the dollar’s value has fallen about 15 percent against the euro, and about 10 percent against the pound and yen.

This suggests that a new economic order is taking shape, “after the keystone nation of the global economy decided to elect an unhinged maniac, again. Absent some kind of reckoning with MAGA …America will never live this down, and all future administrations will be burdened with Trump’s legacy of lower growth, lower employment, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a dramatically higher cost of financing the national debt.”

The dollar’s role as global reserve currency

Cooper continues, “as the issuer of the global reserve currency, America has an obligation to provide dollar assets. As Michael Pettis and Matthew Klein argue in their book Trade Wars Are Class Wars, if the government won’t provide them in the form of Treasury bonds, demand for other dollar assets will drive up its value, tanking American exports and widening the trade deficit.

Indeed, the dollar’s reserve status is partly to blame for America’s chronically large trade deficit. As economist Paul Krugman points out, much of these deficits have been financed by foreign investment in the U.S. If those investors lose confidence in America, they might pull back, similar to a “sudden stop” crisis that countries like Argentina and Portugal have faced.

“There are built-in shock absorbers in place for a country as critical to the global economy as America. But those guardrails are buckling under Trump’s leadership. Cooper elaborates.

“Trump has regularly attacked Powell for not cutting rates and might fill the Fed board with toadies to do the job. But rate cuts, combined with other factors, would boost inflation even more. Tariffs are already spiking some prices. New home prices are likely to rise as Trump is deporting so many construction workers. The enormous tax cuts will drive up borrowing, as will the cost of rolling over existing debt, some $14 trillion of which must be refinanced over the next three years. IRS cuts carried out by DOGE, with the obvious goal of preventing audits of wealthy tax cheats, will further cut revenue by an estimated $500 billion this year alone; that’s more money out there to be spent. As a result of all of this, either interest rates will have to stay high, or prices will keep rising.”

International faith in the dollar has been jolted

Withal, the unquestioned faith in the dollar has been shaken by Trump’s erratic tariff policies.

So, while dollars will continue to be used around the world, Cooper expect[s] a steady erosion in the dollar’s hegemonic status, with a greater share of foreign exchange using a basket of other currencies—the euro, the pound, the yen, the Swiss franc, and so on.

“Trumponomics, by contrast, will produce the opposite: a poorer, weaker America, with structurally higher prices, dedicating a large and growing share of its economy to financing debt created by Republican tax cuts for the rich. And it will all be entirely self-inflicted.”

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Trump’s Unforgivable Sin

Peter Wehner and Robert P. Beschel Jr. delve into this issue in an article for The Atlantic, Aug 10 2025 (https://theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/08/trump-incompetence/683779)

Voters have proved willing to tolerate corruption, but there’s one thing they won’t ignore.

“Tens of millions of Americans voted for President Donald Trump in the belief that he would be competent. They might not have been thrilled that Trump is a convicted felon or pleased with his role in the violent attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Many worried that he posed a threat to democracy. But enough were willing to overlook all that, because they convinced themselves that Trump would be an effective chief executive, that under his stewardship their lives would get better, and the country would prosper.

A little more than half a year into Trump’s second term, however, the public’s confidence in Trump’s skill as a chief executive is shattering. Wehner and Beschel cite a recent AP/NORC poll, which found that “only about one-quarter of U.S. adults said that Trump’s policies have helped them.”

“Roughly half report that Trump’s policies have ‘done more to hurt’ them, and about two in 10 say his policies have ‘not made a difference’ in their lives.

“Remarkably, Trump failed to earn majority approval on any of the issues in the poll, including the economy, immigration, and cutting government spending.

“As a result, a politically toxic impression is hardening. Trump’s approval rating in the most recent Gallup poll is 37 percent, the lowest of this term and only slightly higher than his all-time low of 34 percent, at the end of his first term. (Among independents, Trump’s approval rating is down to 29 percent.) Americans already understood Trump to be corrupt and proved themselves willing to tolerate that. But now they are coming to believe that he is inept. In American politics, that is an unforgivable sin.

Prices up, employment down

Wehner and Beschel continue. “On the economic front, Trump’s tariff increases—announced and then altered, often without rhyme or reason—are only now beginning to percolate through the economy, and the steepest hikes haven’t yet kicked in. The economy appears to be slowing down. Consumer prices are up 2.6 percent from a year earlier, which is keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates despite intense pressure from Trump. The jobs report for July showed a gain of only 73,000, a sign that the labor market is weakening. Perhaps more significant, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the jobs totals from May and June downward by more than a quarter of a million. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2 percent. Consumer spending is well below what it was last year. More than half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a ‘major’ source of stress in their life right now. Many industries are postponing hiring, and the national hiring rate is near its lowest level in a decade. Customers appear to be holding off on large, long-term purchases. The Budget Lab at Yale University calculates that the American consumer is dealing with an average effective tariff rate of 18.3 percent, the highest since 1934, and it estimates that price increases will cost each household $2,400 on average this year.” General Motors reported last month that Trump’s tariffs have cost the company more than $1 billion. And the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a statement that Trump’s latest tariffs “would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Cut backs in the Social Safety Net

Wehner and Beschel point out that the number of Americans without health insurance is going up, increasing by more than 10 million in less than a decade, “with particularly devastating impacts for vulnerable rural populations.”

Delayed tax refunds from the IRS – “Eliminating a quarter of the IRS workforce may well undermine tax collection and increase the wait time for Americans to receive refunds.

“Slashing the Social Security Administration, which is serving more people than ever before, with the fewest workers in half a century, will increase wait times for those needing help. It will lead to field-office closures that will hit seniors in rural communities the hardest and may well delay the processing of retirement, disability, and survivor benefits.”

National Institutes of Health have been devastated  — “The Trump administration has devastated the National Institutes of Health, one of the world’s foremost medical-research centers and the biggest sponsor of biomedical research in the world. Nearly 2,500 grants have been ended or delayed, disrupting vital medical research, reducing the pool of available researchers, and compromising public health and disease prevention.”

Massive cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, resulting in the loss of some of the weather service’s most experienced leaders and impeding the collection of data that are essential for accurate and timely weather forecasting, will place Americans at greater risk of experiencing extreme-weather events.

The upcoming elimination of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “As The Atlantic’s David A. Graham has written, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is in disarray, headed by a person who is clearly out of his depth. Trump wants FEMA eliminated by the end of the year. It has already lost about a third of its permanent workforce, and its program dedicated to helping communities prepare for natural disasters such as floods and fires has been canceled.” What are the consequences?

“In the immediate aftermath of the recent Texas floods, FEMA’s earlier decision to lay off hundreds of call-center contractors resulted in thousands of unanswered calls for recovery assistance. (The administration dismissed reports about this as “fake news.”) FEMA didn’t deploy to St. Louis for several weeks after a tornado destroyed parts of the city, leaving people unable to apply for even basic payments for fresh food and medicine, let alone get help addressing uninsured losses from the natural disaster.”

Despite these cuts that national debt is expected to rise by over staggering $3 trillion, largely as a result of Trump’s tariffs and the reductions in federal government spending.

Concluding thoughts

Trump continuously claims that he and his administration are encouraging a strong economy, perhaps the strongest since the high-growth years of the mid-1930s to the mid-1970s. However, as the evidence considered in this post shows, the overall U.S. economy under Trump is doing poorly. It is not clear how this will impact the mid-term elections in November 2026, but poll data indicate that a majority of Americans are unhappy with Trump’s policies.

The future of democracy is in question. If the Republicans continue their control of both houses of the U.S. Congress, along with Trump in the White House and a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, then democracy’s future is dim.

Profits for Trump and the rich amidst an economy in growing distress

Bob Sheak

May 1, 2025


Trump’s self-image

-Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer quotes Trump: “I run the country and the world” (https://theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/04/trump-second-term-comback/682573

Trump’s enrichment

New York Time’s journalist Steve Rattner writes on April 27, 2025, how Trump is the biggest beneficiary of his own chaotic economic policies (https://stevenrattner.com/article/new-york-times-trumps-biggest-beneficiary-himself). He’s worth citing at length.

“No presidential administration is completely free from questionable ethics practices, but Donald Trump has pushed us to a new low. He has accomplished that by breaking every norm of good government, often while enriching himself, whether by pardoning a felon who, together with his wife, donated $1.8 million to the Trump campaign; promoting Teslas on the White House driveway; or holding a private dinner for speculators who purchase his new cryptocurrency.”

Rattner delves into Trump’s motivation.

“In his trampling of historically appropriate behavior, Mr. Trump appears to be pursuing several agendas. Personal enrichment stands out: Imagine any other president collecting a cut of sales from a cryptocurrency marketed with his likeness. There is the way he is expanding his powers: He has ignored or eliminated large swaths of rules that would have inhibited his freedom of action and his ability to put trusted acolytes in key roles. And then there’s rewarding donors, whether through pardons or favors for their clients.”

Some implications

“The corruption of Trump 2.0 has not gotten the attention it deserves amid the barrage of news about Mr. Trump’s tariff wars, his attack on scientific research and his senior appointees’ Signal text chains. But self-dealing is such a defining theme of this administration that it needs to be called out. Like much that Mr. Trump has done in other areas, it announces to the world that America’s leaders can no longer be trusted to follow its laws and that influence is up for sale.”

Examples from Rattner of Trump’s self-dealings in the first 100 days.

1 – He Eliminated Guardrails

“He turned a legitimate federal employee designation into a loophole. By giving senior officials such as Elon Musk the title ‘special government employee,’ Mr. Trump avoided requirements that they publicly disclose their financial holdings and divest any that present conflicts before taking jobs in the administration.

“He ended bans that stopped executive branch employees from accepting gifts from lobbyists or seeking lobbying jobs themselves for at least two years.

He loosened the enforcement of laws that curb foreign lobbying and bribery.

2 – He Fired Potential Resisters

“He dismissed the head of the office that polices conflicts of interest among senior officials….jettisoned the head of the office that, among other things, protects whistle-blowers and ensures political neutrality in federal workplaces….[and] purged nearly 20 nonpartisan inspectors general who were entrusted with rooting out corruption within the government.”

3 – He Rewarded His Wealthiest Donors

“Rewarding donors is part of any presidential administration. Every president in my memory appointed supporters to ambassadorships. But again, Mr. Trump has gone much further.

“Jared Isaacman, a billionaire with deep tentacles into SpaceX, gave $2 million to the inaugural committee and was nominated to head NASA — SpaceX’s largest customer.

“The convicted felon Trevor Milton and his wife donated $1.8 million to the campaign and Mr. Milton received a pardon, which also spared him from paying restitution.

“The lobbyist Brian Ballard raised over $50 million for Mr. Trump’s campaign, and Mr. Trump handed major victories to two Ballard clients. He delayed a U.S. ban on China-owned TikTok his first day in office and killed an effort to ban menthol cigarettes, a major priority of tobacco company R.J. Reynolds, on his second.

“Mr. Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX billionaire who spent $277 million to back Mr. Trump and other Republican candidates, requires his own category.

“As a special government employee, Mr. Musk is supposed to perform limited services to the government for no more than 130 days a year. By law, no government official — even a special government employee — can participate in any government matter that has a direct effect on his or her financial interests. That criminal statute hasn’t stopped Mr. Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency from interacting with at least 10 of the agencies that oversee his business interests.”

Rattner continues.

“As Mr. Musk’s political activities started to repel many potential customers of Tesla, his electric vehicle company, Mr. Trump lined Tesla vehicles up on the White House driveway and extolled their benefits. Then Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick urged Fox News viewers to buy Tesla shares.

“DOGE nearly halved the team at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that regulates autonomous vehicles. The agency has been investigating whether Tesla’s self-driving technology played a role in the death of a pedestrian in Arizona.”

4 – Trump went All In on Cryptocurrency

“Critics of crypto argue that it has demonstrated little value beyond enabling criminal activity. Despite this, Mr. Trump has wasted no time eliminating regulatory oversight of the industry at the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department, even as his family grows ever more invested in it.

“By enabling money to be delivered anonymously and without any bank participation, crypto offers the possibility for any individual or foreign state to funnel money to Mr. Trump and his family secretly. Moreover, Bloomberg News recently estimated that the Trump family crypto fortune is nearing $1 billion.”

5 – Money flowing into Trump’s political action committees

Mr. Trump is reportedly on his way to raising $500 million for his political action committees — highly unusual for a president who cannot run for re-election.

6 – Investment opportunities in Saudi Arabia

A new Trump Tower is underway in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s second largest city, with plans for two more projects for the kingdom announced after Mr. Trump’s November election victory, all in partnership with a Saudi company with close ties to the Saudi government.”


Where Trump’s major campaign promises stand after 100 days

Brett Samuels considers this issue in an article published on April 28, 2025
(https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5267775-trumps-first-100-days).

Immigration and the border

“Through 100 days, he has delivered on a host of actions intended to ramp up deportations, clamp down on border crossings and close off pathways for refugees and asylum-seekers to enter the country.

“On his first day in office, Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border and began surging resources to the area, including from the Pentagon. The White House shut down the CBP One app, which migrants could use to make appointments at the border.

Trump signed an executive action aimed at ending birthright citizenship for children born to people who do not have legal status in the U.S. The matter is set to come before the Supreme Court in May, as critics have argued the move violates the 14th Amendment.

Trump paused refugee admissions and ended temporary protected status (TPS) for certain groups.”

“The president in March signed a proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act, asserting that any members of Tren de Aragua older than 14 years residing in the United States be ‘apprehended, restrained, secured, and removed as Alien Enemies.’”

“While deportations have not quite reached the soaring levels Trump spoke about on the campaign trail, a White House official predicted the U.S. would set a record by the end of 2025 for deportations in a single year.”

Inflation and tariffs

Samuels writes: “Trump’s biggest problem on inflation and prices could come from his own hand.

“The president would often muse on the campaign trail that ‘tariff’ was one of the most beautiful words in the dictionary as he outlined his plans to aggressively deploy tariffs to reshape global trade, and boost manufacturing.
Trump so far has made clear his tariff talk was no bluff.

The White House has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China over the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

The administration imposed a 10 percent tariff on all imports, as well as higher “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries, including allies like Japan, India, South Korea and members of the European Union. In the face of skittish financial markets, Trump announced he would lower those ‘reciprocal’ tariffs to 10 percent for all countries for 90 days, except in the case of China, where he has ratcheted up duties on Chinese goods to a total of 145 percent.

“The president has imposed sector-specific tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and automobile imports. He has laid the groundwork to impose additional tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, critical mineral imports, semiconductor imports and copper imports.”

The war in Ukraine

“Trump made grand promises while on the campaign trail about ending the war in Ukraine, pledging at various points that he would be able to solve the conflict within 24 hours of taking office and at one point asserting he could broker an end to the war during the transition.” Yet to be achieved.

“Trump administration officials have met directly with counterparts from Russia and Ukraine, and the president has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

“Trump has at times lashed out at Zelensky and at other times lashed out at Putin and Russia, placing blame on both nations as an impediment to an agreement. He has also in recent weeks sought to distance himself from the conflict, describing it as ‘Biden’s war,’ a reference to the previous administration.

Transgender issues

“One of Trump’s most consistent applause lines on the campaign trail came when he would tell supporters, typically at the end of rallies, that he would ‘keep men out of women’s sports.’

“Trump made good on that campaign rhetoric just weeks after taking office, signing an executive order to ban transgender women from competing in girls and women’s sports. The White House invited hundreds of guests for the signing, touting it as a major milestone early in the administration.”

“The Pentagon reinstated a ban on transgender troops serving in the military, a move that has been caught up in the courts. On Trump’s first day in office, he signed an executive order recognizing only two sexes, male and female, and directing federal agencies to cease promotion of the concept of gender transition.
Pardons, DEI and more”

Pardons

“On his first day in office, Trump pardoned roughly 1,500 people charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. The move surprised even some of his aides, who had suggested Trump’s pardons would be more targeted.”

“Another major culture war issue that Trump took on during the campaign was ending diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies in the government.
The Trump administration swiftly put federal employees in DEI roles on leave and moved to shutter DEI-related offices. The president has also signed orders directing the Pentagon and State Department to remove DEI initiatives.

Revenge

“The president has also followed through on what many of his critics feared, using the levers of government to directly target his political opponents.

“While Trump said on the campaign trail that ‘success’ would be his revenge on his opponents, he has cut off security details for former administration officials who had been critical of him.

“Trump has directed the Justice Department to investigate two former administration officials who crossed him. And he signed an executive order targeting ActBlue, a major Democratic fundraising platform.”


Trump is severing US from the world

Ben Rhodes reports that it only took a 100 days for Trump to sever America from the world (https://nytimes.com/2025/04/27/opinion/100-days-trump-world.html).

Mr. Rhodes is a contributing Opinion writer and the author, most recently, of “After the Fall: The Rise of Authoritarianism in the World We’ve Made.”

“Consider the breadth of this effort. Allies have been treated like adversaries. The United States has withdrawn from international agreements on fundamental issues like health and climate change. A “nation of immigrants” now deports people without due process, bans refugees and is trying to end birthright citizenship. Mr. Trump’s tariffs have upended the system of international trade, throwing up new barriers to doing business with every country on Earth. Foreign assistance has largely been terminated. So has support for democracy abroad. Research cuts have rolled back global scientific research and cooperation. The State Department is downsizing. Exchange programs are on the chopping block. Global research institutions like the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center have been effectively shut down. And, of course, the United States is building a wall along its southern border.”

The domestic economic impact

“If the current reduction in travel to the United States continues, it could cost up to $90 billion this year alone, along with tens of thousands of jobs. Tariffs will drive up prices and productivity will slow if mass deportations come for the farm workers who pick our food, the construction workers who build our homes and the care workers who look after children and the elderly. International students pay to attend American universities; their demonization and dehumanization could imperil the $44 billion they put into our economy each year and threaten a sector with a greater trade surplus than our civilian aircraft sector.

The outlook gets worse with time. Why would other countries choose to invest in a country where the president roils global markets through social media posts, profits from crypto schemes that fleece ordinary people and undermines the rule of law upon which commerce depends? It’s far more likely that nations will make trade deals and forge supply chains without the United States while China and its growing list of partners accelerate a movement away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”

“After 250 years of growing more diverse and more connected to the world, Mr. Trump and his cohort are imposing the staid insularity of self-imposed decline. The draining of democratic values from our national identity will leave America defined by its size, power and quixotic lust for profit: a place, not an idea. Roosevelt left us the inheritance of believing we were the good guys. Mr. Trump is eviscerating that pretense as cuts to U.S.A.I.D. have almost certainly caused more civilian deaths than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”


Polls reflect Trump’s inept economic policies

John Nichols delves into how Trump’s poll numbers have collapsed, The Nation, April 29, 2025 (https://thenation.com/article/politics/trump-polling-numbers-have-collapsed). Here’s some of what he writes.

“After the first 100 days of his second term, Donald Trump occupies the national stage as a historically unpopular president—a suddenly exposed and challenged commander in chief whose combination of scorching ineptitude and creeping authoritarianism has removed the veil of invincibility that Trump obtained in the period leading up to and immediately following his inauguration on January 20.

“Trump’s personal approval ratings are collapsing. So are the polling numbers that measure enthusiasm for his approach to issues that were once considered to be his strong suit. And so, too, are the numbers for his congressional allies, who now face the very real potential for defeats in the 2026 midterm elections that could leave Trump’s administration without the ability to govern in the last two years of his second term.”

“Media outlets released four major new polls today, all pegged to the 100-day mark of Trump’s second term, all with similar findings,” observed Stelter.

“The headlines:
Washington Post/ABC News: “Trump approval sinks as Americans criticize his major policies.”
CNN: “Trump’s approval at 100 days lower than any president in seven decades.”
NBC: “Americans vent disappointment with Trump ahead of his 100-day mark, especially on tariffs.”
CBS: “Trump’s first 100 days seen as bringing big changes, but still too much focus on tariffs.”

“Trump’s actual poll numbers are worse than those headlines suggest,” Nichols points out. He’s not just doing badly. He’s doing epically badly. Just 39 percent of those surveyed for the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll approve of how Trump is serving as president. The ABC analysis of that figure explained, “Donald Trump has the lowest 100-day job approval rating of any president in the past 80 years, with public pushback on many of his policies and extensive economic discontent, including broad fears of a recession.”

“Even supposedly conservative pollsters are suggesting that Trump’s in trouble, with Rasmussen Reports finding that, by a 51–42 margin, Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction under Trump. The overall pattern, as reflected in the Real Clear Politics survey of all recent polls, finds that voters believe, by a 51–39 margin, that the country is off course.

“An even more serious concern for Trump and his allies is the collapse in faith in the president’s ability to deal with what were considered to be his strongest issues.

“The new Associated Press/IPSOS poll finds that 53 percent of Americans now disapprove of the president’s handling of immigration policy, while just 46 percent approve. Independent voters, whose support is critical for Trump, disapprove of his handling of migrant and refugee concerns by a staggering 61–37 margin. And the trouble is not limited to that one issue. The new Fox News poll finds that just 38 percent approve of Trump’s approach to taxes and the overall economy, while an even smaller cohort—a mere 33 percent— backs his handling of inflation.

“For congressional Republicans who have stuck with Trump, the poll numbers have taken a major turn for the worse. The Fox News survey finds that, were the mid-term elections held now, voters would back generic Democratic candidates over Republicans by a 49–42 margin. That sort of split, were it to be reflected in the November 2026 midterm election results, would obliterate Republican control of the House.”

“Trump’s ability to intimidate and discourage those who disagree with him is crumbling, as mass demonstrations against his policies erupt across the country and critics are boldly speaking out in the bluntest of terms.”

Concluding thoughts

Trump is taking the economy on a precarious path that will likely isolate the United States from the global economy, create shortages of goods and services here, find ways to enrich himself and the rich, with attempts to make the U.S. an authoritarian state, dismissing due process at a whim.

Political and economic chaos now

Bob Sheak, April 13, 2025

Introduction

Trump wants to create a political system in which he is the undisputed leader dictating, directly or indirectly, how it operates and who it favors. Since his re-election in November 2024, he has been haphazardly trying to consolidate his power. Elon Musk, Trump’s partner so far, is advancing this self-serving agenda partially through DOGE, the unofficial and inexperienced but powerful young team endorsed by Trump to reduce or privatize government programs that benefit average and poor citizens.

Tens of thousands of federal jobs have already been eliminated. Trump’s tariffs are further undermining the economy and alienating allies. One huge effect is that the dollar may cease to be the currency that undergirds international trade and investments.

There is now a threat of an economic recession, or, worse yet, both rising unemployment and rising inflation. On top of it all, congressional Republicans are geared up to pass a budget, with Trump’s encouragement, that includes a huge tax cut that disproportionately benefits the rich and big corporations.

This post debunks Trump’s narcissistic and unfounded claim that he is one of the greatest presidents in US history and then reviews evidence on the current damage he is causing. The post will delve into these issues: (1) the tens of thousands of federal employees who have been pushed out of their jobs; (2) examples of reductions in vital federal government services; and (3) the negative effects of Trump’s tariffs. It all adds up to this: Trump and his administration pose a great threat to the US economy insofar as most people are concerns – and to US democracy.


“Economic Idiot”

Michael Tomasky nails it when it writes, “Donald Trump Just Proved He’s an Economic Idiot” (https://newrepublic.com/post/192464/donald-trump-flip-flop-economic-idiot).

One of the worst presidents in US history

Fred Wertheimer disputes Trump’s claim that he is the greatest or second greatest president of all time in an article on Democracy 21, March 13 2025
(https://democracy21.org/news/freds-weekly-note/the-worst-president-in-history-a-lifetime-of-failure). Here’s some of what Wertheimer writes.

“President Donald Trump has moved swiftly in the early weeks of his second presidency with a game plan based on anger, hate, revenge, and destruction. He appears to be out to turn our democracy into an autocracy.”

“Last year, a survey of more than 150 historians ranked Trump as the worst President in American history. Trump has done nothing early in his second term to indicate the historians were wrong.

“Yet, in his address to Congress last week, Trump crowed, ‘It has been stated by many that the first month of our presidency … is the most successful in the history of our nation.’”

Wertheimer offers a glimpse at Trump’s record

-a Liar – “There’s no running list to show who is the biggest liar in history, but Trump’s reported 30,573 false and misleading statements during his first presidential term alone would probably put him in the running.”

-a convicted felon – “Trump is a failure as an American citizen. He is a criminal, convicted last year of 34 felony counts by a jury of his peers. Three additional criminal indictments were ultimately blocked from reaching trial by Trump’s election in November. In total, he faced 91 criminal charges.

-“Trump was found liable for engaging in sexual abuse and defamation by a jury of his peers. Trump owes more than $88 million to the victim, E. Jean Carroll, for two defamation judgements.

-twice impeached by the House – “Trump has repeatedly failed as a President. Trump was twice impeached by the House of Representatives, the only person in American history to suffer this infamy.

-a riot instigator – “And he became the first President to attempt a presidential coup following the 2020 election – an election he clearly lost. He incited a violent mob attack on the Capitol but failed to stop the Electoral College vote count by Congress.”

-He was found liable for fraudulently inflating his net worth for purposes of borrowing money from lenders. He was ordered to pay $355 million plus interest, which, by January, has reached $490 million. The judge said of Trump and his associates that their “complete lack of contrition and remorse borders on pathological.”

-his companies have been sued – “His companies have filed for bankruptcy six times and his businesses have been involved in more than 4,000 legal actions, including class action lawsuits.

-Trump casinos, failures. Trump University, failure. Trump airlines, Trump mortgage company, Trump telecom, bottled water, vodka, steaks, mattresses, fragrance. All failures in the end.

-the Trump foundation – “Trump’s own Donald J. Trump Foundation was forced to dissolve for misconduct as part of a lawsuit by the New York Attorney General. Trump had to acknowledge in the case that he personally misused foundation funds. The lawsuit alleged that the non-profit Trump Foundation functioned “as little more than a checkbook to serve Mr. Trump’s business and political interests,” and had engaged in “a shocking pattern of illegality.”

-we must fight to hold him accountable and stop him – “Trump’s efforts to tear apart our government and abuse our civil servants; intimidate the media; restrict free speech; undermine the rule of law; ignore the Constitution; abuse national security; misuse law enforcement and the military; and increase the wealth of the wealthy at the expense of ordinary Americans, are dangers and abuses that must be fought at every step.”

In the end our democracy will prevail. Trump will fail, just as he repeatedly has.
Trump’s legacy will be summed up simply like this – he was the worst President in American history.


1 – Tens of thousands of federal employees have been pushed out of their jobs, while some have been temporarily reinstated.

New York Time’s journalists, Elena Shao and Ashley Wu, provide some estimates as of March 28 (updated to April 8) (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/28/us/politics/trump-doge-federal-job-cuts.html). .
Confirmed cuts* At least 56,230
Employees who took buyouts About 75,000
More planned reductions At least 146,320

Tens of thousands of employees across the federal government have left their jobs, been put on leave or been fired as a part of the government-gutting initiative of the Trump administration and billionaire Elon Musk. Federal agencies have been directed to make plans to reduce their work forces even further.

Confirmed reduction so far, by agency
U.S. Agency for International Development More than 99%
Voice of America (U.S. Agency for Global Media) More than 99%
Education 46%
Health and Human Services 24%
Energy 13%
Internal Revenue Service (Treasury) 13%
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau 12%
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Commerce) 11%
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 10%
National Science Foundation 10%
Note: Offices or agencies with less than 200 employees at the beginning of the year are not shown here.

Shao and Wu point out, “Based on the latest available information, reductions could affect at least 12 percent of the 2.4 million civilian federal workers — a number that could grow as more of the agencies’ plans come into focus.”

Jobs outside, as well as inside, of the government are not easy to find

Giulia Carbonaro looks at the evidence in a Newsweek article, April 8, 2025
(https://newsweek.com/fired-federal-workers-flood-brutally-competitive-job-market-2055185)

She writes: “Federal workers who have lost their jobs as part of recent mass layoffs recommended by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are being thrown into a ‘brutally competitive’ job market, experts told Newsweek.

“‘This is not your normal ‘let’s start looking for a job’ situation,’ said Amanda Goodall, a self-proclaimed “labor market nerd,” career coach and founder of The Job Chick.

A key point: “To be blunt, it’s a brutally competitive job market right now, and that was before we had more than 200,000 federal workers flood the private sector,” she [Goodall] told Newsweek. “Is the job market going to be tough for federal workers? You bet it is.”

Why It Matters

“Thousands of federal workers have been fired as part of President Donald Trump’s administration’s efforts to shrink the ‘bloated” federal government, as the president described it, though the precise number remains unknown, ‘as plans shift and regulatory and legal challenges to some changes continue to unfold,’ Indeed Economist Allison Shrivastava told Newsweek.

“Many of those abruptly laid off are now looking for a new job, with Indeed reporting a 50 percent surge in job applications from federal workers between January and February. This dramatic spike in job search activity from former federal employees is likely to continue as DOGE carries on with slashing funds and scrapping contracts across the federal government.

“Federal workers who have lost their jobs are being thrown into a ‘brutally competitive’ job market, experts told Newsweek.”

Carbonaro again quotes Goodall, “‘there are not enough job openings in the market to reabsorb all the federal workers that have been laid off in recent months, ‘not even close.’”

Why finding a job may be difficult

“Absorbing displaced federal workers and contractors may prove to be a challenge for a job market that is frozen by uncertainty, especially in knowledge-work sectors where employer demand remains low.”

“‘You have all these accountants and lawyers and scientists in the federal workforce who are potentially very useful for the private sector, and those people should find jobs relatively easily,’ Christopher Herpfer, assistant professor of finance at the Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, told Newsweek.

“‘But you have people that are older who have been within the government for 20-30 years and who are very specialized. Those people would find it much harder to integrate into the private labor market.’”


2 – An example of reductions in vital federal government services

The reductions are, or are planned, across the board, even on Veteran’s health care programs and Social Security. Here the focus is on health care programs for lower-income people.

Health Care

Eleanor J. Bader reports in an article for Truthout, April 6, 2025, there are over 79 million in US at medical risk (https://truthout.org/articles/care-for-over-79-million-in-us).

The risk stems from the planned cuts to Medicaid and CHIP that “will put more than 79 million people at medical risk.” But resistance is mounting.

“Kelly Smith, a 57-year-old New York City resident, is part of the Nonviolent Medicaid Army (NVMA), a growing national movement of poor people who are organizing to stop proposed cuts to Medicaid and promote health care as a human right.

“The need for health care unites us all,” Smith told Truthout. “Right now, I’m terrified of losing Medicaid and being unable to get injections for pain control.

“‘They’re the only thing that makes it possible for me to be on my game.’

“Nonetheless, she says that her health is somewhat fragile. Not only is she a breast cancer survivor, but she also has severe scoliosis and takes medication for hypertension, high cholesterol and depression — all covered by Medicaid.

“That this coverage might end or be reduced — a real possibility if Congress approves pending budget cuts to satisfy DOGE and the Trump administration — terrifies her and other members of the NVMA. Their work is twofold: They are mobilizing against recently announced threats to curtail Medicaid while also organizing to ensure that health care is recognized as a human right.

“‘We’re organizing call-in days to tell lawmakers our stories and let them know the value of Medicaid in our lives. We’re also attending town halls,’ Smith said.

“A new Gallup survey finds 11 percent of US adults can’t access quality care and can’t pay for care or medicine.

Bader writes: “We have to eliminate the shame associated with disability and poverty.” A lot is at stake.

“According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Medicaid currently covers 72.1 million people. The program was first established in 1965 as part of the ‘war on poverty,’ and was initially meant to provide health care to recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children, a welfare program. In the 60 years since, it has expanded to cover low-income children and adults as well as those living in nursing homes or in need of home care.” The program now is responsible for financing by Medicaid 41 percent of births, including “1 in 6 adults aged 19-64, 2 in 3 nursing home residents and 1 in 3 adults with disabilities got their health care through a Medicaid program.”

“Children also benefit. The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) extended health coverage to families deemed over-income for Medicaid but still too poor to buy private health insurance. As of October 2024, more than 7 million children were enrolled.

“All told, Medicaid and CHIP serve more than 79 million U.S. residents. And while these programs vary by state, as a joint federal-state partnership, the programs ensure that low-income children and adults have at least minimal access to care.

It costs a lot: “between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, the government spent more than $860 billion, not including administrative costs, on Medicaid programs.” Elon Musk’s DOGE wants to slash the program and used the savings
to finance tax cuts of $1.1 trillion, money that will benefit only the wealthiest 1 percent of the country — giving an average annual tax break of $62,000 to those with incomes of $743,000 or more through 2034.”

The cuts will be harmful for the poor and working-class people.

Here is one of Bader’s examples. “Sheila Bingham of Little Rock, Arkansas, will also be negatively impacted if the cuts come to fruition. The 47-year-old receives both Medicare and Medicaid and is being treated for a rare cancer, debilitating migraines, type 2 diabetes, erratic blood pressure and intense pain. ‘I rely on Medicaid to pay my Medicare premium of $106 a month,’ she told Truthout. ‘I won’t survive if they start taking this out of my $1,400 disability check.’”

Resistance to Medicaid cuts is rising.

All is not lost yet. “Already, groups including the National Conference of Mayors, the National League of Cities, The Council of State Governments, the National Association of Counties and the National Conference of State Legislators have told federal lawmakers that they oppose rollbacks of medical coverage. Similarly, the National Medicaid in Schools Coalition, a group of 65 organizations, has written a letter to Congress stressing that ‘children cannot learn to their fullest potential with unmet health needs.’ The coalition adds that services to special education students — including occupational, physical and speech therapy; mental health counseling; and adaptive equipment — are often paid for by Medicaid. ‘A 2023 Congressional Budget Office analysis found that just one extra year of Medicaid coverage during childhood leads to higher earnings and better productivity as an adult, boosting the nation’s economy,’ the letter notes.

“Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, told Truthout that in addition to stressing the value of Medicaid in keeping people healthy, the public needs to be reminded that Medicaid is an insurance program for people who need it. ‘Politicians who brand it as a program for low-income people who are unwilling to work are incorrect. The American people need to be armed with facts. Medicaid cuts will make more people sick, will make more people die and will close more rural hospitals,’ he said.”

The dubious notion of work requirements for Medicaid recipients.

Bader refers again to Benjamin. “Work requirements for Medicaid recipients, another idea being floated by the GOP, are also flawed, Benjamin adds. ‘The real goal of work requirements is to kick people off the rolls. These are people who are already struggling, those with the least money and the least internet access, making it hard for them to complete the required paperwork.” In addition, approximately two-thirds of Medicaid recipients are already working, he adds, with those who are not likely exempt because of age or infirmity.’

“Then there’s the idea that the state-federal funding balance should shift to make states pay a higher percentage of Medicaid costs. ‘Poor states, many of them red, receive a bigger match from the feds,’ Benjamin said. ‘If the feds reduce the amount they give to the states, many will have to either raise taxes or reduce services.’”

“What’s more, he says that many health centers, particularly those in remote, rural areas, operate on a shoestring budget. ‘Many are two or three weeks away from not making payroll,’ Benjamin reports. The likely result? The closure of clinics, hospitals and health centers in already underserved areas.”

This article is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), and you are free to share and republish under the terms of the license.

Eleanor J. Bader is a Brooklyn, New York-based freelance writer who focuses on domestic social issues and resistance movements. In addition to Truthout, she writes for The Progressive, Ms. Magazine, Lilith, The Indypendent, New Pages and other progressive blogs and print publications.


3 – The negative effects of Trump’s tariffs

Trump justified his imposition of tariffs by arguing that tariffs would eventually lower the national debt and encourage the expansion of manufacturing. John Nichols responds, as many others have, that “tariffs will not renew US manufacturing in an article published by The Nation on April 7, 2025 (https://thenation.com/article/politics/trump-tariffs-manufacturing). Here’s some of what Nichols writes.

“With no evidence to back up his claims, Trump campaigned on the promise that across-the-board tariffs—applied with casual disregard for the realities of globalized manufacturing systems on which US and foreign industries now rely—would reopen shuttered American factories.

“The ploy worked. Plenty of working-class voters in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, who were desperate for new economic policies, embraced his candidacy.

“Yet Trump never bothered to learn the first thing about how tariffs work. As a result, as he announced a sweeping program of tariffs on countries all over the world last week, he did not just destabilize the American economy and cause one of the most dramatic stock market selloffs in US history. He advanced the lie that simply slapping tariffs on US trading partners is going to put people back to work in Janesville, Wisconsin, and Youngstown, Ohio, and Tonawanda, New York, and the steel towns of western Pennsylvania.

Nichols continues. “To actually revitalize those areas, explains Democratic US Representative Chris Deluzio, an Iraq War veteran, voting rights attorney, and union organizer who represents the historic manufacturing region around Pittsburgh, requires a dramatically smarter approach—and a dramatically more pro-worker approach than that of politicians like Trump who for too long have done the bidding of Wall Street speculators.”

Deluzio is calling for “an industrial policy that is rooted in respect for American workers and the communities where they live, as opposed to Trump’s political gamesmanship and outright lies, the ‘free trade’ fantasies of the speculators, and the race-to-the-bottom mentality of multinational corporations. It’s important to listen to members of Congress like Deluzio, who actually know what they are talking about, as opposed to the political posers who have jumped into the debate from all sides with political sloganeering—rather than facts and experience on the ground in working-class communities.

“Deluzio explained on Wednesday, after Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on countries around the world, as well as individualized reciprocal tariffs on countries that have trade deficits with the US:

“‘I want to be clear about what I support and what I don’t: I support using tariffs as a tool against bad actors and trade cheats—like Communist China. I support using tariffs strategically alongside muscular industrial and pro-worker policies to protect American jobs and consumers. And I support renegotiating—aggressively—trade deals like the USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement] to get the best possible deal for hardworking Americans like us in Western Pennsylvania.’”

Trump’s trade approach “has been chaotic, inconsistent, and incomplete: you need more than just tariffs to rebalance trade and kickstart American manufacturing. And we should not treat close economic allies like Canada the same as mercantilist trade cheats like China. Moreover, American workers and consumers should not be the ones paying for the necessary transition away from a broken trade system; the businesses that profiteered from that old regime should bear the cost. The President has the power to stop corporations from using the cover of tariffs to price gouge people—why won’t he use it?”

US Representative Mark Pocan, a Wisconsin Democrat, “who has always been an advocate for policies that benefit workers in the US, reminds us, ‘Trump’s across-the-board tariffs are simply taxes on the average American.’ We need to see ill-thought tariffs as Trump is now implementing them not as pro-worker policies, explains Pocan, but as ‘taxes you and I will pay to cover the cost of the $4.5 trillion tax cut for his billionaire buddies like Elon Musk.’”

“‘The saddest thing about Trump’s incoherent tariff policy is it will betray the working-class voters who have seen 90,000 factories shut down [under failed trade policies],” says Khanna, a tech-savvy economic realist who recognizes that, while targeted tariffs can benefit specific industries in specific circumstances, Trump’s across-the-board tariffs are a destructive, blunt instrument backed up by false promises. “The left does not need to embrace economic nonsense to rebuild,” he says. “FDR rejected high tariffs and relied on massive domestic investment.”

“What’s needed, say those who understand the steps that must be taken to build a pro-worker, pro-community American manufacturing economy, is an economic focus that rejects the empty promises of Donald Trump, and understands that, as Khanna says, ‘What we need is smart trade, strategic trade, not tantrum trade!’”

Concluding thoughts

With the substantial help from Elon Musk and his DOGE team, Trump has sat by while many thousands of federal workers have lost their jobs or now find themselves in a position where they don’t know whether they have a job in the federal government or not. Trump’s policies have alienated countries with his “beautiful” tariffs, with as the prospect of generating havoc in the global economy. The dollar, as a currency that is widely used in international trade, is now in question. Trump has “paused” many of his tariffs (though not on China). He apparently isn’t given up on the tariff approach to the economy.

Meanwhile, Trump talks about a third presidential term and about his imperialistic designs on Greenland, Panama, and even Canada.

Amidst all this, polls find consumers and more and more citizens are opposed or wary of what he is doing (https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-update-today-2058972).

The turmoil and human suffering to come in 2025

The turmoil and human suffering to come in 2025
Bob Sheak December 3, 2025

The Presidential Election

Trump barely won the presidential election in November. Although he claims that his victory gave him a mandate to implement an extreme right-wing agenda, the numbers say otherwise. His margin of victory was the smallest of any presidential election since 1900. And we should bear in mind that Trump’s vote is unfairly buttressed by widespread right-wing gerrymanding in “red” states. James M. Lindsay cites the following “official” numbers in an article for the Council for Foreign Relations (https://cfr.org/article/2024-election-numbers).

“Early election coverage described Trump’s victory as a landslide. But whether you go by the Electoral College vote or the popular vote, it was anything but. The 312 Electoral College votes that Trump won are just six more than Joe Biden won in 2020, twenty less than Barack Obama won in 2012, and fifty-three less than Obama won in 2008. Trump’s Electoral College performance pales in comparison to Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1936 (523 electoral votes), Lyndon Johnson’s in 1964 (486), Richard Nixon’s in 1972 (520), or Ronald Reagan’s in 1984 (525). In terms of the popular vote, more people voted for someone not named Trump for president than voted for Trump in 2024, and his margin of victory over Harris was 1.5 percentage points. That is the fifth smallest margin of victory in the thirty-two presidential races held since 1900.”

Despite such a narrow victory, Trump’s claims he won a massive victory and continues to promise to implement an extreme right-wing agenda once he is in office.


Trump’s top agenda items

They include the following: (1) tariffs, (2) the deportation or detention of all undocumented residents, (3) tax cuts for the wealthy, (4) pardons for many (if not all) who participated in the insurrection, and (5) revenge on his political and media “enemies.” Under the influence of Elon Musk, Trump appears now to be open to allowing some high-skilled foreign workers to enter the country under the H-1B program. The present article will consider #s 1 and 2. But note, first, that he has the support of Republicans, large swaths of the rich and powerful, and his unquestioning base of tens of millions of Americans. But the billionaires play a disproportionate role.

Trump’s inner support team

Trump is being influenced by wealthy advisers and by those who support his right-wing extremism. One of his chief advisers in the presidential transition, ending on January 20, is multi-billionaire Elon Musk. Musk supported Trump’s presidential campaign with contributions of 200-250 million dollars. He is not the only billionaire in Trump’s entourage. New York Time’s journalists, Theodore Schleifer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, identify “the Silicon Valley Billionaires Steering Trump’s Transition (https://nytimes.com/2024/12/06/us/politics/trump-elon-musk-silicon-vallley.html). The journalists tell us that the “article is based on interviews with more than a dozen people with insight into the transition, including people who have participated in the process. Most spoke on condition of anonymity to preserve their relationships with Mr. Trump.”

Here’s some of what they report.

“The week after the November election, President-elect Donald J. Trump gathered his top advisers in the tearoom at his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, to plan the transition to his second-term government.

“Mr. Trump had brought two of his most valued houseguests to the meeting: the billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk and the billionaire co-founder of Oracle, Larry Ellison.”

The journalists continue.

“Mr. Trump has delighted in a critical addition to his transition team: the Silicon Valley billionaires and millionaires who have been all over the transition, shaping hiring decisions and even conducting interviews for senior-level jobs. Many of those who are not formally involved, like Mr. Ellison, have been happy to sit in on the meetings.”

“Their involvement, to a degree far deeper than previously reported, has made this one of the most potentially conflict-ridden presidential transitions in modern history. It also carries what could be vast implications for the Trump administration’s policies on issues including taxes and the regulation of artificial intelligence, not to mention clashing mightily with the notion that Mr. Trump’s brand of populism is all about helping the working man.”

“The tech leaders in Mr. Trump’s orbit are pushing for deregulation of their industries and more innovative use of private sector technologies in the federal government, especially the defense industry. About a dozen Musk allies took breaks from their businesses to serve as unofficial advisers to the Trump transition effort.

“Broadly, the group is pushing for less onerous regulation of industries like cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence, a weaker Federal Trade Commission to allow for more deal-making and the privatization of some government services to make government more efficient. Mr. Musk himself has called some executives at major public companies and asked how the government is thwarting their business — and what he can do to help.”

“These tech leaders have played a far broader role than simply contributing to the nascent Department of Government Efficiency — the Musk-led effort, abbreviated as DOGE, that is intended to effectively audit the entire government and cut $2 trillion out of federal spending. Mr. Musk’s friends are also influencing hiring decisions at some of the most important government agencies.”

“Inside the Trump transition team’s headquarters in West Palm Beach, Fla., the billionaire Marc Andreessen, a tech investor who decades ago founded one of the first popular internet browsers, has interviewed candidates for senior roles at the State Department, the Pentagon and the Department of Health and Human Services.

“Jared Birchall, the head of Mr. Musk’s family office with no experience in foreign affairs, has interviewed a few candidates for jobs at the State Department. Mr. Birchall has been involved in advising the Trump transition team on space policy and artificial intelligence, helping to put together councils for A.I. development and crypto policy.”

“Shaun Maguire, another Musk friend, is now advising Mr. Trump on picks for the intelligence community. Mr. Maguire, a brash Caltech Ph.D. in physics who is an investor at Sequoia Capital, has been a staple of the Trump transition over the last month, including interviewing potential candidates for senior Defense Department jobs.”

These examples represent just a small slice of Trump’s rich supporters.

“The transition offices have been crawling with executives from defense tech firms with close ties to Mr. Trump’s orbit, such as Palantir, which was co-founded by Peter Thiel, and Anduril, the military technology startup led by Palmer Luckey. Several SpaceX executives have been asking questions about matters that go well beyond space policy, and interrogating federal spending across government agencies, people with direct knowledge of the talks say.”

1 -Trump on tariffs

DeArbea Walker, assistant editor at Forbes, reports on Trump’s proposed tariffs and their effects on consumers (https://forbes.com/sites/dearbeawalker/2024/12/26/how-consumers-can-prepare-for-trumps-new-tariffs).

Walker writes that “A tariff is a tax on imported goods that companies pay to the government when they import products to the U.S….”

“‘That extra cost has to get covered one way or another, either by coming out of the importing company’s margins or by being passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices,’ Forbes contributor Joe Moglia says. ‘If the tariffs are too high, there may be no choice other than raising prices.’

Trump’s tariff proposals

Tariffs on China,, Canada, and Mexico

“Trump has proposed 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico and Canada, to stop the flow of fentanyl and migrants across the U.S. borders.

“During the presidential campaign, Trump said he’d impose at least a 60% tariff on imports from China. After the 2024 election, he said he’d add 10% “above any additional tariffs” on all goods coming from China until they stop fentanyl production.”

“Trump’s rationale for his proposed tariffs includes restoring manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and, some experts say, using tariffs as a trade negotiating tool. In addition to the economic motivations, Trump cites security: He has insisted that Mexico and Canada stem the flow of illegal drugs and migrants over the border.”

Tariffs on EU

“Trump recently threatened nonspecific tariffs against the European Union if the trade bloc didn’t step up U.S. oil and gas imports.”

Effects of tariffs on consumers

“Weekly grocery bills are likely to get more expensive if President-elect Donald Trump follows through in imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China. Everything from avocados to garlic will go up.

“That new car you’re eyeing—or even your next grocery run—could cost more after President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Trump plans to sign an Executive Order on day one that would impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and threatens additional tariffs on products from China and elsewhere.” He initially claimed that domestic consumer prices would not go up, but later acknowledged they could (https://truthout.org/articles/trump-reneges-on-promise-that-tariffs-wont-raise-costs-for-consumers).

“Tariffs on raw materials like steel or aluminum could send the prices of cellphones and laptops through the roof, according to True Tamplin, a Forbes personal finance contributor. A 10 percent tariff on a $1,000 laptop would add $100 to its prices.”

Walker also refers to a list of goods compiled by Forbes contributor Frank Holmes, that could become more expensive as a result of Trump’s tariffs.

“Groceries, like avocados, tomatoes, garlic, and other produce from Mexico.
Electronics and appliances, including washing machines, laptops, phones and TVs, which are made from imported parts from Canada and China
Clothing, shoes and other everyday goods made abroad
Home improvement supplies like wood, steel and paint
Cars like the Nissan Sentra and Mercedes-Benz GLB are assembled in Mexico.”

In addition, Walker writes, “Industries with lots of exposure to imported goods—retail, electronics and even agriculture—could face significant headwinds.”

Spillover effects

Walker notes, “There’s also the risk of the spillover effect. Retailers importing the goods will increase the price to absorb the cost of the tariff, however, domestic producers, who aren’t impacted by the tariffs, will feel emboldened and may raise their prices too.” This was the case during Trump’s first term when dryers, not subjected to tariffs, rose 12%.

On balance, tariffs are costly for domestic residents and businesses. Mark Williams summarizes this point (https://bu.ed/articles/2024/would-trumps-tariffs-send-prices-soaring).

“Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, temporarily protecting domestic markets, and they can raise incentives for onshore manufacturing and sales. Short-term, there could be some production gains. However, as Trump proved during the 2018 tariffs on imported steel, they did little to materially increase the number of jobs in US steel plants. Moreover, once tariffs were slapped on China, they quickly retaliated by making many US products more expensive; this eventually led to a reduction in the number of US export jobs.”

Tariffs are not popular among Americans

In a Newsweek magazine article, Suzanne Blake reports that a majority of Americans do not like tariffs, specifically Trump’s proposal (https://newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-tariff-plan-inflation-poll-2001523). Here’s the crux of what she writes.

“A majority of Americans are bracing themselves for President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, according to a poll that was published on Monday.

“In a WalletHub Fed Rate survey of 200 Americans this month, 74 percent of Americans said Trump’s possible tariffs would likely lead to more inflation down the line as it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.”


2 – The deportation or detention of all undocumented residents

Trump’s plans for his first day in the White House includes the mass deportation or detention (and eventual deportation) of virtually all eleven plus million undocumented residents. Here are some facts from Pew Research (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us).

“Unauthorized immigrants live in 6.3 million households that include more than 22 million people. These households represent 4.8% of the 130 million U.S. households.

“…some facts about these households in 2022 [the latest available]:
 In 86% of these households, either the householder or their spouse is an unauthorized immigrant.
 Almost 70% of these households are considered “mixed status,” meaning that they also contain lawful immigrants or U.S.-born residents.
 In only about 5% of these households, the unauthorized immigrants are not related to the householder or spouse. In these cases, they are probably employees or roommates.”

“Of the 22 million people in households with an unauthorized immigrant, 11 million are U.S. born or lawful immigrants. They include:
 1.3 million U.S.-born adults who are children of unauthorized immigrants. (We cannot estimate the total number of U.S.-born adult children of unauthorized immigrants because available data sources only identify those who still live with their unauthorized immigrant parents.)
 1.4 million other U.S.-born adults and 3.0 million lawful immigrant adults.”

Clarissa-Jan Lim considers Trump’s plans for day one of his presidency in an article for MSNBC, Dec 27, 2024 (https://msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/trump-day-one-deportations-jan-6-pardons-tariffs-rena185019). Here’s some of what she reports on Trump’s “immigration” plans.

One of Trump’s most extreme campaign promises was to carry out “the largest mass deportation program” in the country’s history beginning on Day 1 of his presidency. It’s unclear how such a such a large-scale operation could be executed, but immigration officials have said it would be a huge logistical and financial effort. Economists have also warned that such a program would cause an “economic disaster” for the U.S., which relies heavily on migrant labor.

“Trump told NBC News in November, Lim notes, that there would be ‘no price tag’ for his mass deportation plans.” That is, Trump insists he will have the government spend as much as it takes to effectuate his mass deportation plans.

Trump wants to end “birthright citizenship”

Lim continues. “In a move that could face a prolonged legal fight, the president-elect has also said that he wants to end birthright citizenship through executive action on his first day to deny citizenship to U.S.-born children of undocumented immigrants. Birthright citizenship is a protection enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, but Trump has said that he would consider changing the Constitution to rescind the rule.” It will take more than Trump’s assumption that he, as president, can change the constitution. Why? Amending the Constitution is a power that lies with Congress, not the president. Trump’s plan would result in children being separated from their parents or, in some cases, ending up in the foster care system, in the care of other family members, or even incarcerated.

Using the military to assist in mass deportation

Nonetheless, Trump seems determined to push ahead on mass deportation, even to use the military in such a massive effort.

Charlie Savage and Michael Gold report on Trump’s plan to use the military to assist in the deportation (https://nytimes.com/2024/12/16/us/politics/trump-military-mass-deportations.html). They report as follows.

“President-elect Donald J. Trump confirmed on Monday that he intended to declare a national emergency and use the U.S. military in some form to assist in his plans for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.

“On his social media platform, Truth Social, Mr. Trump responded overnight to a post made earlier this month by Tom Fitton, who runs the conservative group Judicial Watch, and who wrote that Mr. Trump’s administration would ‘declare a national emergency and will use military assets’ to address illegal immigration ‘through a mass deportation program.’”

According to Savage and Gold, “In interviews with The New York Times during the Republican primary campaign, described in an article published in November 2023, Mr. Trump’s top immigration policy adviser, Stephen Miller, said that military funds would be used to build ‘vast holding facilities that would function as staging centers’ for immigrants as their cases progressed and they waited to be flown to other countries.

“The Homeland Security Department would run the facilities, he [Miller] said.
One major impediment to the vast deportation operation that the Trump team has promised in his second term is that Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, lacks the space to hold a significantly larger number of detainees than it currently does.”

The Trump team believes that such camps could be built expeditiously and thus enable the government to accelerate deportation process of undocumented people who fight their expulsion from the country. The assumption is that more people would voluntarily accept removal instead of pursuing a long-shot effort to remain in the country if they had to stay locked up in the interim.

“Hard-right members of Congress and staunch supporters of Mr. Trump have expressed broad support for his proposal for mass deportations. Senator Tommy Tuberville, Republican of Alabama, chimed in on social media on Monday to back using the military for such an effort, saying Mr. Trump was ‘100% correct.’
Mr. Miller has also talked about invoking a public health emergency power to curtail hearing asylum claims, as the Trump administration did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Deportation without Congressional action

“Mr. Trump’s team said it had developed a multifaceted plan to significantly increase the number of deportations, which it thought could be accomplished without new legislation from Congress, although it anticipated legal challenges.
Other elements of the team’s plan include bolstering the ranks of ICE officers with law enforcement officials who would be temporarily reassigned from other agencies, and with state National Guardsmen and federal troops activated to enforce the law on domestic soil under the Insurrection Act.

“The team also plans to expand a form of due-process-free expulsions known as expedited removal, which is currently used near the border for recent arrivals, to people living across the interior of the country who cannot prove they have been in the United States for more than two years.

“And the team plans to stop issuing citizenship-affirming documents, like passports and Social Security cards, to infants born on domestic soil to undocumented migrant parents in a bid to end birthright citizenship.

“Mr. Trump has already signaled his intent to follow through on his promises with personnel announcements. He named Mr. Miller as a deputy chief of staff in his administration with influence over domestic policy. And Mr. Trump said he would make Thomas Homan, who ran ICE for the first year and a half of the Trump administration and was an early proponent of separating families to deter migrants, his administration’s ‘border czar.’”

“Mr. Homan told The New York Times in 2023 that he had met with Mr. Trump shortly after the now president-elect announced that he would seek office again. During that meeting, Mr. Homan said, he ‘agreed to come back’ in a second term and would ‘help to organize and run the largest deportation operation this country’s ever seen.’ In response to a question on the problem of separating children from their parents, Homan said parents who lose their immigration cases “are going to have to make a decision what you want to do: You can either take your child with you or leave the child here in the United States with a relative.”
That is, if there is a relative available and one who can afford the responsibility of caring for an additional child or children.

Questions about Trump’s deportation plan

“Asked about the proposal, Sabrina Singh, a spokeswoman for the Pentagon, declined to comment, calling it ‘a hypothetical.’ In general, she added, such a plan would typically undergo ‘a rigorous process’ before being enacted, but she declined to elaborate.”

Critics

Savage and Gold cite immigrant advocates who have assailed Trump’s deportation plan, raising alarms about the potential fallout.

“‘President-elect Trump’s dystopian fantasies should send a chill down everyone’s spine, whether immigrant or native-born,’ said Karen Tumlin, the director of the Justice Action Center, an immigrant advocacy organization. ‘Not only is what he is describing in all likelihood illegal, this move would be the exact opposite of the legacy of service in which my family members were proud to participate.’”

“Robyn Barnard, the senior director of refugee advocacy at Human Rights First, asserted that the consequences would be far-ranging. ‘Families will be torn apart, businesses left without vital employees, and our country will be left to pick up the pieces for years to come,’ she added.

“Congressional Democrats responded with a similar level of incredulity, asserting that such a move was all but certain to violate federal laws preventing the use of the military on American soil.

“‘We’re pursuing whatever we can do to make clear that the Insurrection Act should not permit that use of the military,’ said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, referring to the 1807 law that grants presidents emergency power to use troops on domestic soil to restore order when they decide a situation warrants it. Under that law, ‘if there is no threat to public order of a fundamental, far-reaching kind, it would be illegal,’ he added.”

Separations

Jacob Soboroff, who visited detention sites during Trump’s first presidential term, published his finding in a book titled Separated: Inside an American Tragedy. Here is part of an article reviewing the book on July 7,2020, by Kirkus Reviews (https://kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/jacob-soboroff/separated-tragedy).

“Separating migrant minors from their families has been a hallmark of the current administration—and, writes the author, ‘an unparalleled abuse of the human rights of children.’ His narrative begins in June 2018 in Brownsville, Texas, where he toured a former Walmart that had been converted into a ‘shelter’ to house some 1,500 migrant boys, many of them caught with their families trying to enter the U.S. By virtue of the administration’s vaunted ‘zero tolerance’ policy, these children represent what Soboroff calls ‘an avoidable catastrophe.’ His sketches of the detention centers are consistently affecting and haunting. As he noted at the time, ‘this place is called a shelter, but effectively these kids are incarcerated.’ The policy of separation was foreshadowed in Trump’s blustery rhetoric during the 2016 campaign—but more by his lieutenant Stephen Miller, who loudly voiced ‘vitriol for undocumented immigrants.’ It was up to Homeland Security head Kirstjen Nielsen to enact it, even after she was warned that family separations would constitute a violation of the constitutional principle of fair treatment. Miller’s faction won the day, and family separation became policy. Startlingly, when a federal judge ruled against the policy and ordered the government to reunite detained families, Customs and Border Patrol admitted that it had planned to separate ‘more than 26,000 children between May and September 2018’ alone. Naturally, the administration has denied the policy even as, Soboroff notes, the principals involved who remain in the administration are now the very people who are coordinating the government’s bungled response to COVID-19. And even though the policy has theoretically been terminated by executive order, thousands of migrant children are still detained in tent cities and other facilities across the border, in some cases without their families for years.”

Concluding thoughts

Trump wants to transform the US in ways that will give him incomparable presidential power. However, his plans, flawed and undemocratic as they are, will generate opposition as well as support. Who knows which side will prevail. But his ambitions are inherently flawed and, if implemented, likely to cause economic chaos and suffering among large segments of the population. The big question is whether such effects will lead to the buildup of opposition forces strong enough politically to prevent Trump from succeeding in pushing his extreme economic and immigration plans.